G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 13th September 2021
3 minutes read timeChinese equities rallied, when trade numbers indicated a higher level of activity than expected for July against this credit supply was lower with total social financing dropping to 10.3% YoY. Evergrande, an embattled construction conglomerate, got official permission to restructure its debt leading the market to price in 75% haircut in its bonds. This negative […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 6th September 2021
3 minutes read timeEuro area inflation rose to a 10-year high, printing 3%. Despite the recent return of ABBA, this is not a return to inflation from that era, even though further near-term rises are thought likely. Tellingly, ABBA now perform with “Abatars” (virtual backing singers) demonstrating why the bargaining power of the labour market is not what […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 31st August 2021
3 minutes read timeOil’s gentle decline was reversed as hurricane Ida reduced North American capacity by over 1m bpd in crude and 2m bpd in refined products. Comparisons with Katrina were feared but not realised as the storm passed through much quicker and the consequent precipitation was spread over a much larger area. Covid news was more upbeat […]
G10 Macro Rates Blog – Vulnerability to rising yields is back
4 minutes read timeFind out more on Pacific G10 Macro Rates Second bite of the cherry? Global FI Macro provided positive performance early this year, when long duration struggled. We argue, that again the opportunity exists to diversify away from long bond exposure. The vulnerability of having 12 months’ worth of carry and roll wiped out by a […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 24th August 2021
3 minutes read timeIn New-Zealand the short-term interest rates were volatile as a single confirmed case of Delta variant forced the RBNZ to suspend a widely expected rate hike. The bank maintained its medium term economic views, so the impact beyond the 1y point was limited. Global interest rates were almost unchanged in the 10y sector but did […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 18th August 2021
2 minutes read timeChina opened the week with higher inflation numbers and very interestingly also announced a lower-than-expected volume of credit supplied to the economy. This had Chinese focused economists pairing back their forecasts of Q3 GDP and predicting easing being required going forwards. And at the end of the week reports of a major Chinese port shut […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 11th August 2021
3 minutes read timeThe other highlight of the week was the Bank of England’s meeting. The BoE reiterated its transitory view of current inflation and raised its growth and CPI forecasts as well as lowering its unemployment forecast. Another important change was lowering the trigger level for taper to a 0.50% policy rate hurdle, down from 1.50%, and […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 2nd August 2021
3 minutes read timeWhilst events like this certainly have the potential to move the G10 interest rate markets, this time they were focused firmly on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Chair Powell’s post meeting comments can be summarised as “Look at payrolls, not at Cpi”, his point being that both labor market progress and persistently high inflation will […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 12th July 2021
3 minutes read timeThe negativity continued with a disappointing ISM, an unanticipated crackdown on a ride hailing app by Chinese regulators and some disquieting noises surrounding potential defaults in the Chinese construction industry. Whilst corporate regulation and defaults are necessary part of markets, the short-term mark to market may be a little more painful than previously anticipated. Towards […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 5th July 2021
3 minutes read timeOn the positive side the details of the report showed some of the expected progress, with service sector performing well. However, with the level of employment 6.8 million below the pre-pandemic high, and roughly equivalent to an 8.5% unemployment rate, there is a lot of room for “substantial further progress”. The participation rate disappointed, remaining […]
