G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 18th August 2021
2 minutes read timeChina opened the week with higher inflation numbers and very interestingly also announced a lower-than-expected volume of credit supplied to the economy. This had Chinese focused economists pairing back their forecasts of Q3 GDP and predicting easing being required going forwards. And at the end of the week reports of a major Chinese port shut […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 11th August 2021
3 minutes read timeThe other highlight of the week was the Bank of England’s meeting. The BoE reiterated its transitory view of current inflation and raised its growth and CPI forecasts as well as lowering its unemployment forecast. Another important change was lowering the trigger level for taper to a 0.50% policy rate hurdle, down from 1.50%, and […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 2nd August 2021
3 minutes read timeWhilst events like this certainly have the potential to move the G10 interest rate markets, this time they were focused firmly on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Chair Powell’s post meeting comments can be summarised as “Look at payrolls, not at Cpi”, his point being that both labor market progress and persistently high inflation will […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 12th July 2021
3 minutes read timeThe negativity continued with a disappointing ISM, an unanticipated crackdown on a ride hailing app by Chinese regulators and some disquieting noises surrounding potential defaults in the Chinese construction industry. Whilst corporate regulation and defaults are necessary part of markets, the short-term mark to market may be a little more painful than previously anticipated. Towards […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 5th July 2021
3 minutes read timeOn the positive side the details of the report showed some of the expected progress, with service sector performing well. However, with the level of employment 6.8 million below the pre-pandemic high, and roughly equivalent to an 8.5% unemployment rate, there is a lot of room for “substantial further progress”. The participation rate disappointed, remaining […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 30th June 2021
2 minutes read timeDelta variant cases increased in the UK, but hospital admissions were largely unaffected. The low hospital admissions are thought to be due to the high vaccination rates of older cohorts in this country. With many other countries now vulnerable to this more contagious variant, questions around their vaccine strategy and how welcome the UK tourist […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 23rd June 2021
3 minutes read timePost the FOMC, the ECB’s Chief Economist was very quick to point out the Eurozone economy was a long way behind the USA. With the suspicion that their board is worried about the recent strengthening of the euro. Canada Headline inflation was strong May CPI +0.5% MoM (0.4% exp., 0.5% prev.) and +3.6% YoY (3.5% […]
G10 Macro Rates Blog – Prepare for lift off
2 minutes read timeFind out more on Pacific G10 Macro Rates What if inflation is not transitory? Those core central banks have been sanguine about inflationary pressures being only temporary. As shown in the chart below this leaves us in limbo for forward rates and inflation outlook. The big fear is “what if inflation is not transitory?”, the […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 25th May 2021
2 minutes read timeWith some “serious” fund managers recently allocating to Crypto assets (please don’t make me say it), a review of their rationales and CitiWire mea-culpa’s should be expected, served with a garnish of Schadenfreude from the non-believers. This noise washed out a most important signal – taper – from the FOMC! The minutes noted “talking about […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 18th May 2021
2 minutes read timeEquities, not to be left out, had an intraday move of -8% in Taiwanese stocks on a new virus surge. A hacking incident over the previous weekend shut gas supplies to the USA’s eastern seaboard. This initial news flow was backed up by COVID nervousness around the more contagious so-called Indian variant. These forces combined […]
