G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 10th May 2021
3 minutes read timeOther highlights were Treasury Secretary Yellen’s revelatory comment that policy rates might have to move higher in response to strong growth. She quickly backtracked that this was not guidance being given to the Fed. The BoE did a “fake taper” of decreasing QE purchases without adjusting the target amount. However, they did adjust upwards their […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 4th May 2021
4 minutes read timeWith CPI, PPI PMIs and several G10 central bank meetings, there was certainly potential for volatility. However, CPI, PPI were benign across almost all countries and whilst PMIs showed strength in countries exiting lockdown, there were no large increases. Market volatility was disappointingly quiet, again depressed by a benign Fed. Chinese PMIs printed at expansionary […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 19th April 2021
3 minutes read timeThe Federal Reserve’s Beige Book was a long way from its usual dryness, with the Philadelphia district mentioning severe supply constraints hampering potential growth and describing demand as “on fire”. US economic activity was highlighted as “accelerating to a moderate pace” employment expectations were generally strong. Activity was boosted partly by the vaccination program, with […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 12th April 2021
2 minutes read timeCanada Very substantial gains in the jobs market. Mar employment figures printed +303.1k (100.0k exp., 259.2k prev.) pushing the unemployment rate down to +7.5% (8.0% exp., 8.2% prev.) and this was in the face of a large pick up in the participation rate to +65.2% (64.8% exp., 64.7% prev.) USA The Market focused on the […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 5th April 2021
2 minutes read timeBiden’s ‘silicon road’ infrastructure plan was also released. A trimmed spend of roughly $2tln, already down from the whisper number of nearer 3, hinting at the difficulty that this will have passing congress – even within the Democrats. With much wrangling ahead, as well as the planned spend occurring over a leisurely 8 years, markets […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 29th March 2021
2 minutes read timeWorries about potential growth, oil and some commodities increased as a cargo ship got stuck in the Suez Canal. With Asian trade data continuing to provide positive surprises out of Taiwan and South Korea markets quickly calibrated that an extra week or 2 in delivery times would not significantly derail the growth story and so […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 22nd March 2021
3 minutes read timeOn a more technical note, the Fed reintroduced the SLR – a banking orientated balance sheet restriction that was temporarily lifted in midst of last year’s market chaos. Despite initial fears, the funding markets were not disrupted, prices were still made, and the sky did not fall. Going forwards the short-term funding rates may drift […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 15th March 2021
3 minutes read timeThe 10y USTs was only a bp or 2 higher at the end of the week, this did not mean all was quiet though. The FOMC in a pre-meeting blackout period allowed the market to wander 15bps back and forth. An impending decision on the reintroduction of the SLR, a banking balance sheet restriction that […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 8th March 2021
2 minutes read timeContinuing with surprises, economic surprise indices – measures of how surprised economists are that their forecasts were wrong – are showing that China is returning to a period of growth that largely matches where economists think it should be. Historically this really is a surprise, and contrasts with most other G10 economies which are releasing […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 1st March 2021
3 minutes read timeAt the end of the week rates markets finally calmed down and found a clearing level, as further moves higher in rates were seen limited due to equities beginning to wobble. Does the economy care? Well, these rate moves have started to challenge central bank guidance and these challenges may well continue. Q2 growth and […]
