G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 29th March 2021
2 minutes read timeWorries about potential growth, oil and some commodities increased as a cargo ship got stuck in the Suez Canal. With Asian trade data continuing to provide positive surprises out of Taiwan and South Korea markets quickly calibrated that an extra week or 2 in delivery times would not significantly derail the growth story and so […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 22nd March 2021
3 minutes read timeOn a more technical note, the Fed reintroduced the SLR – a banking orientated balance sheet restriction that was temporarily lifted in midst of last year’s market chaos. Despite initial fears, the funding markets were not disrupted, prices were still made, and the sky did not fall. Going forwards the short-term funding rates may drift […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 15th March 2021
3 minutes read timeThe 10y USTs was only a bp or 2 higher at the end of the week, this did not mean all was quiet though. The FOMC in a pre-meeting blackout period allowed the market to wander 15bps back and forth. An impending decision on the reintroduction of the SLR, a banking balance sheet restriction that […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 8th March 2021
2 minutes read timeContinuing with surprises, economic surprise indices – measures of how surprised economists are that their forecasts were wrong – are showing that China is returning to a period of growth that largely matches where economists think it should be. Historically this really is a surprise, and contrasts with most other G10 economies which are releasing […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 1st March 2021
3 minutes read timeAt the end of the week rates markets finally calmed down and found a clearing level, as further moves higher in rates were seen limited due to equities beginning to wobble. Does the economy care? Well, these rate moves have started to challenge central bank guidance and these challenges may well continue. Q2 growth and […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 22nd February 2021
3 minutes read timePart of the answer to this story is reflected in the higher PPIs in the UK and USA. The question, will these feed through the chain-weighted index to the consumer level CPI, depends on the balance of companies’ pricing power relative to spare capacity in the labour market? Additionally, the refocusing of global GDP on […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 15th February 2021
3 minutes read timeThese positive economic nuances along with the USA treasury auctioning its longer duration bonds, as it does every 2nd week of the month, saw global yields move higher, trying to discount the supply and pricing in the better economic outcomes. Even the Fed Chair’s dovish speech – US labour market far from strong, and new […]
G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 8th February 2021
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G10 Macro Rates Market Analysis – Weekly Review – 1st February 2021
2 minutes read timeChair Powell spoke post the FOMC decision, emphasising the road to a normal economy remains a long way off. ECB speakers emphasised that rate cuts were still possible, focusing the markets eye on the strength of the Euro. With many G10 central banks close to their reversal rate (lower bound), jawboning their currencies lower might […]
G10 Macro Rates Blog – This isn’t a casino, this is a riot
2 minutes read timeThe “burners”, in this case, appear to be millennial day traders coordinating their efforts via various social media sites, Facebook, Reddit etc. Their sheer numbers in this fast-growing movement gives them enough firepower to warp a share price to levels that have forced the likes of Melvin Capital to cover their shorts at great loss […]
